Why this question keeps coming up

In recent years, central banks—especially in emerging markets—have been net buyers of gold while, in aggregate, trimming or reshuffling their exposure to US dollar assets. Gold prices have surged to record highs, and headlines about “de‑dollarisation,” sanctions risk, and interest‑rate volatility have amplified interest in how official reserves are composed.

That backdrop has spawned a provocative claim: that central banks now hold more gold (by market value) than US Treasury securities. Whether that is true depends heavily on definitions, valuation choices, and which institutions you include.

The crucial definitions

• Which institutions? “Central banks” is often used as shorthand for the official sector, but US data on Treasury ownership separates foreign official institutions (central banks, finance ministries, and some sovereign wealth funds) from private investors. Some analyses try to isolate central banks only, excluding sovereign wealth funds; others do not.
• What assets are comparable? For a fair comparison, focus on reserve assets held by foreign central banks and monetary authorities: gold and foreign securities (including US Treasuries). Do not mix in the Federal Reserve’s domestic Treasury portfolio, which is monetary‑policy stock, not foreign reserves.
• How to value gold? Many central banks carry gold at historic cost on their balance sheets, but comparisons typically use current market value (spot price × tonnes).

What the public data say (and what they don’t)

There is no single, perfectly clean, real‑time dataset that shows exactly how many US Treasuries central banks alone hold. Instead, analysts triangulate:

• Gold holdings: The World Gold Council and central bank disclosures indicate that official sector gold is roughly “mid‑30,000s” tonnes globally. As a rule of thumb, 36,000 tonnes ≈ about 1.16 billion troy ounces. At a spot price of, say, $2,300/oz, that implies ≈ $2.7 trillion in market value. If you exclude the United States’ gold (about 8,100 tonnes), non‑US official gold would be roughly $2.0–$2.1 trillion at that price.
• US Treasuries held by the foreign official sector: The US Treasury’s TIC data typically show foreign official holdings on the order of several trillion dollars. Depending on the month and classification, estimates often fall in a broad range around $3–4 trillion for foreign official holders in total. Attempts to strip out sovereign wealth funds to leave “central banks only” yield lower figures, but those estimates vary because disclosure is incomplete.

Two big caveats: not all countries report reserves detail in the same way or with the same timeliness, and holdings kept via third‑country custodians can blur country‑level attributions in the data.

So, do central banks have more gold than Treasuries?

The answer depends on the lens you choose:

• All central banks worldwide vs all US Treasuries they hold (excluding the Federal Reserve’s portfolio): Under most conventional, apples‑to‑apples definitions—using current market value for gold and TIC’s foreign official category for Treasuries—US Treasuries still come out larger than gold. That is because foreign official Treasury holdings are commonly estimated around $3–4 trillion, while non‑US official gold at typical recent spot prices is closer to ~$2.0–$2.3 trillion.
• Emerging‑market central banks as a group: For some EM cohorts, especially those that have been heavy gold buyers and have pared back US duration risk, gold may be at or nearer parity with their US Treasury holdings than in the past. The gap has narrowed meaningfully since 2022.
• All official gold (including the US and euro area) vs foreign official Treasuries: Some claims compare the entire world’s official gold (including the large US and euro‑area hoards) to foreign holdings of Treasuries (which, by definition, exclude the Federal Reserve’s portfolio). That mix can make gold look bigger, but it is not an apples‑to‑apples comparison of foreign reserve managers’ exposures.

Bottom line: under most standard, like‑for‑like approaches, foreign central banks collectively still hold more US Treasuries than gold by value, though the margin has narrowed and could fluctuate with gold prices and reserve allocation shifts.

Why central banks have been buying gold

• Geopolitical and sanctions risk: Gold is a bearer asset outside the credit of any single country, which some reserve managers see as a hedge against asset freezes.
• Diversification: After a long cycle of dollar dominance, some central banks want a more balanced mix of reserve assets.
• Correlation and duration: Gold’s behavior across cycles can complement interest‑bearing reserves; meanwhile, higher US yields changed the cost/benefit of holding long‑duration Treasuries.
• Market depth vs. sovereignty: US Treasuries remain the deepest, most liquid safe asset. The trade‑off is between unparalleled liquidity and perceived political risk.

How to check the numbers yourself

• Gold tonnage: Look up the latest official-sector gold holdings from the World Gold Council and central bank reports. Convert tonnes to troy ounces (1 tonne ≈ 32,151 oz) and multiply by spot price for a market‑value estimate.
• Treasuries: Use the US Treasury’s monthly TIC data for “foreign official” holdings. Be aware that this bucket includes more than just central banks and may include some sovereign wealth funds and public pension entities.
• Ensure comparability: Decide whether you want “foreign central banks only” and whether you are valuing everything at current market value. Small definitional choices can swing the conclusion.

What could change the answer

• Gold price: A sustained move higher lifts the market value of official gold directly.
• Reserve allocation: Continued net gold purchases by emerging markets or renewed buying by advanced economies could push gold closer to parity with Treasuries.
• US rates and issuance: Higher yields raise the carry on Treasuries and can attract official buyers; large net issuance may also alter relative valuations and demand.
• Geopolitical shocks: Escalating sanctions or conflicts could accelerate hedging into non‑sanctionable assets like gold.

Takeaway

Claims that “central banks have more gold than US Treasuries” often hinge on mixing universes or valuation methods. Using an apples‑to‑apples comparison of foreign reserve managers and marking gold to market, Treasuries typically still exceed gold in aggregate—though by a smaller margin than a few years ago. The direction of travel since 2022 has been toward more gold and somewhat less concentration in US duration, but liquidity and market depth keep Treasuries central to most reserve portfolios.